Montero helping Sounders FC across the river

Soccer Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a record of 12-7-11, a playoff spot as the Western Conference's No. 3 seed, a U.S. Open Cup Championship, and almost half-a- million in paid attendance, Seattle Sounders FC was coming off one of the most successful expansion seasons in Major League Soccer history in 2009.

But the first half to the 2010 season didn't go nearly as smoothly.

The Sounders were 4-8-3 after a July 4 loss at the Los Angeles Galaxy, and it appeared the second-year MLS club was headed for a major letdown in 2010.

But since that loss at L.A., the Sounders have gone 5-1-2 to improve their overall record to 9-9-5.

Twenty-three-year-old Colombian striker Fredy Montero has been one of the main reasons for the recent turnaround. He scored five goals during that stretch, three of which were game-winners. He also has three game-winning assists.

Montero has 10 goals and nine assists overall this season, and is on pace to easily best his 12 goals and seven assists of last season, when he won the MLS Newcomer of the Year Award. But his contributions go well beyond the numbers.

Since joining MLS from Colombia's First Division - where he was the Golden Boot winner in 2007 and 2008 - Montero has established himself as one of the league's most consistent attackers. He has made the adjustment to a different culture and to a league that has a lot more travel, is much more physical, and has inconsistent refereeing from game to game. And he has done it all while upping his commitment to the Sounders, both on and off the field.

"He has really increased his work-rate on and off the ball for us in terms of helping us out at times defensively and getting himself into some very good offensive positions," Seattle coach Sigi Schmid told The Sportsbook Betting Lines. "He's had more touches because the guys have been more comfortable with him. They know where to find him.

"He got used to the league. It's something we talked about. He was already pretty powerful and knew how to use his body, it definitely comes into play. He realizes that some of the calls he would get in Colombia he wouldn't get here, he's fighting through some of those situations. Obviously he's one of our leaders in the game, he's one of our most important players."

Basically, Montero has transformed himself from the hotshot newcomer, into a respected leader on the team.

"I'm happy because I've earned that on the field," Montero told The Sportsbook Betting Lines through interpreter Gene Ramirez. "Obviously the responsibility is bigger with my [teammates], coaches, and the [front office], and obviously with all the fans."

Last season Montero put up big numbers as an unknown playing for an expansion team. The fact that it appears like he is going to smash his goal output from a year ago - while already topping his assist mark - is a testament to his hard work, because teams now know what to expect from the 5-foot-9 speedster.

"It is a little harder at the personal level and the collective level because the goals that I am scoring this year are starting to look like a virtue of mine," Montero said. "Last year I was not that well known in MLS."

RUNNING DOWN A DREAM

It's no secret that Montero has his sight set on a transfer to a European power at some point in his soccer career, but so far he is taking a patient approach, refining his game so that he gives himself the best chance for long- term success at the highest level.

"That is my dream and I believe it is the dream of all the players to be in the highest, most competitive leagues in all of Europe," he said. "I'm hoping that when the times comes, I go there and play there for a long time and not just one season and return like some players have done."

One driving force for Montero is the support of his family as he chases his dream.

"It is not easy at my age," he said. "Obviously I left my house at 13-years- old following my dream. I'm still following my dream. It's gratifying that I have my mom, dad, brothers and sisters living with me. It's gratifying to have them by my side."

BUMP IN THE ROAD

Seattle is coming off a 3-1 loss at New England on Saturday, a loss that snapped a seven-game unbeaten run. Will that loss send the team back into a tailspin, or was it a bump in the road to the MLS Cup playoffs?

"Right now our short-term goal is we have to make sure we make the playoffs," Schmid said. "We can't get caught looking ahead. The example I always use for players is, if you are trying to get to the other side of the river and you are walking across stones, your goal is to get to the other side of the river. But if you take your eye off the next stone you go splash and you never get to the other side."

Montero echoed Schmid's statement.

"We are taking it one game at a time and we try to view each game as if it was a playoff game, whether its a CONCACAF game, U.S. Open Cup or an MLS game."

Seattle is currently in seventh in the league table, with the top eight qualifying for the playoffs at the end of October.

FIRST TO TWO

Regardless of what happens in league play this season, the Sounders have a chance to do something no MLS team has ever done before - win back-to-back U.S. Open Cup Championships.

"Nobody has won it back-to-back since the early 80s when a New York team did it when it was basically all of the ethnic leagues all over the country," Schmid said. "Being the first team in a long time to win it back-to-back, being the first team in MLS is something that we would be very proud of. It's unique, it's different, it sets us apart. When you can be the first at something nobody can every take that away from you."

The Sounders host the Columbus Crew in the tournament final on Oct. 5 at Qwest Field.

"You don't get many chances in your lifetime as a soccer player, as a coach, to actually win a championship in your home stadium," Schmid said. "It doesn't happen in MLS Cup very often. Obviously it doesn't happen in [CONCACAF] Champions League and things like that. It is very rare that you get a chance to hoist a trophy in front of your home crowd. We are very excited about that."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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FOOTBALL BETTING

Sportsbook Betting

After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.

Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.

Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.

So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.

In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.

For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.

The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.

The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.

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